Wall Street showed another hard day of losses as
investors quickly start selling when quarterly earnings were
reported. Major indexes fell more than 4% with Dow Jones tumbling
down 515 points.
With negative profits forecast, jump in a dollar and
lower oil prices may even more slow down economy even if lending
crises stabilize. Because dollar hit high against other major
currencies this brings higher cost for commodities.
Government with bailout packages is easing credit
crises but with negative third quarter results reported by many
companies, the outlook of U.S economy may not be good as everyone
initially thought.
Market analysts were saying many times that we hit
market bottom as stock lost 30 percent of their value. However, the
true bottom may not happen until early 2009.
So far many banks are still freezing credit and not
letting companies borrow money for day to day operations. If banks
allow borrowing this would free up companies to do some spending.
With spending on both sides from companies to consumer level would
give a better understanding as where the economy will be heading in
next 6-8 months. Government with its second bailout package of $450
billion proposed another round of rebate checks that were similar to
early rebates of $600-$1200 early this year.
The idea how economy is doing and if credit market has
improved will be in fourth quarter earnings. Investors are scared as
August, September and October are difficult months. It is expected
that consumer will slow down spending this holiday season as well;
however after holiday saving may bring a better results.
There needs to be a continued series of positive signs
to indicate that Wall Street has successfully passed its negativity.
Even with $300 billon project called Hope for
Homeowners that passed in July is literally not making any progress
or many people forgot about it.
Many homeowners who had sought help are being told
that details haven't been worked out yet and who knows when the
details will come out. There will be more and more foreclosures on
the horizon.
Hope for Homeowners promised to save 400,000
foreclosures over the next three years, but several millions of
foreclosures are expected and program is still not working.
The program aims to help homeowner to refinance them into fixed 30
year mortgage loan. It requires lenders be willing to substitute
existing mortgages for new ones written to 90 percent of the new
appraised value of the homes, in effect making lenders put up 10
percent equity.
This program may be too little to late as there might
be around 2 million foreclosures by the end of 2009.
Because of banks tough guidelines many new homebuyers
and investors need at least 700 credit score. While many have
580-600 credit score which does not help as banks will not be
lending to those borrowers. If banks were willing to lend money for
borrowers with 580 score, this would open up sales in housing and
housing market can stabilize as home prices would improve.
The program itself Home for Homeowners needs to be
worked out in details as homeowner and government may take months to
get approved. But as this is talking longer and longer, many
homeowners needs help right now. And help is not coming just
yet.
Many investors welcome this program as another part to
avoid foreclosure, but this program might be used after government
exhausts all possible opportunities and second bailout package is in
discussions.
So far only 80 lenders have signed for this program
and training for the industry will start next month. Borrowers who
are able to stay in their homes as a result of this program will
forfeit at least 50 percent of future home value appreciation to the
government.
Government does not have the manpower to handle all
borrowers at the same time but there is a talk to allow bankruptcy
judges to alter mortgages under this program.
In some cases government would have to buy the
mortgage of a lien holder or jointly underwrite it directly with an
investor.