Dow Jones Closes Below 8,000
- Economy Outlook
Grim
With five year low Dow Jones plunged more than 400
points amid worries about auto industry and the economy.
The S&P 500 index closed more than 6 percent,
while NASDAQ lost more than 6.5 percent.
Stocks finished at their lows as automakers pleaded
for a relief which now stalls as Congress is not willing to
co-operate with automakers. Congress wants auto makers to file for
Chapter 11 and emerge just like airlines did; however; big three
automakers claim that there might not be a second chance for them.
Shares of General Motors and Ford dropped more tan10
percent. In the past 12 months, GM share lost 90 percent of their
value while Ford lost 80 percent.
Federal Reserve officials slashed forecast through
2009 and hinted that another rate cut might be needed. "Even after
today's (half-point cut), the committee judged that downside risks
to growth would remain," the Fed, the U.S. central bank, said in
minutes released Wednesday.
The Fed Fund Rates, now at one percent, still proves
not to be enough as economy is spiraling down even further. Fed now
would have to start looking at other measures besides lowering
interest rates to 50basis points or even zero to help economy.
Government bailouts may calm credit markets, but stock
holders are holding their investments in short term. Investors still
see huge risks with long-term credit market, corporate credit
market, commercial mortgages, and high-yield bonds.
The Fed lowered its forecast for 2008 gross domestic
product growth to between zero and 1.3 percent from its June
projection of 1.0 to 1.6 percent. The economy could shrink by 0.2
percent in 2009, according to Fed.
Another grim economic outlook came for oil prices
which fell nearly to 22-months low Wednesday. U.S. crude for
December delivery fell 77 cents to $53.62 a barrel.
The government also reported that supplies of gasoline
had risen by 500,000 barrels, and stockpiles of distillates, which
are used to make diesel fuel and home heating oil, fell by 1.5
million barrels.
The decline has also slashed the price of unleaded
gasoline in half since July to $2.047 a gallon, AAA reported
Wednesday.
Big three automakers may pull some strength to get
financing to survive, however; what are the chances that they will
be back in 6 months to ask for more money? Many companies are in
bankruptcy protection plans such as Linens 'n Things in bankruptcy
since May, is liquidating now as creditors refused to extend more
credit.
Mervyn's announced it would liquidate, as well as
Circuit City, which filed for bankruptcy protection last week may
liquidate as well.
However, companies such as General Motors may put a
dent into U.S economy even further. With projected job loss of 3
million these jobs will vanish for good. Bankruptcy offers a path to
reorganization and with GM, Ford that might not be the path.
GM and Ford needs to make payments to UAW, united auto
works union, and with close to $70/hr assembly jobs, Ford and GM are
unable to re-negotiate contracts in timely manner.
Bankruptcy protection gives companies a new start,
while blocking all creditors. But this protection plan only protects
while all managers and CEO's need to figure out how to return to
profitability.
But this may not work for big three automakers, as
they have very challenging industry and they need restructuring
beyond just its balance
sheets.